Nasdaq and SP500 End Q2 on the Highs

Trading Data Update June 30 2025

As we have demonstrated with various charts over the last few weeks that retail has been the driving force behind the consistent bid in equities, quarter end did not disappoint as the equity markets closed at new all time highs. Here we take a look a the September Nasdaq futures. They closed the quarter at 22866.75 up a massive 17.8% on the quarter and +5.7% on the year, also a quarter best +38.9% off the lows leading all equity indexes:

The SP500 futures ended the quarter at 6245.25 that is up +10.6% on the quarter and up 3.5% on the year.

Both the Russell2k and Dow Indexes failed to make new 2025 highs as they continue to lag the other indexes.

When we look at the SP500/Nasdaq futures spread we can see the NQ outperformance, this is a new low for the quarter on the spread and we may see a bit of a reversion here as this area has been a source of SP500 bids vs the NQ prior:

The Dollar Index has been getting beat up all year down almost 12% but it does have a massive long term trend channel which comes in near the low prints around 95.75/96.00 area.

September Silver was up a massive +31.9% off the lows of the quarter, the star performer by that metric in the metals sector:

As far as the QQQ ETF it finds itself back into this coiling triangle and we should expect some turbulence up here as the quarter end bid may fade. We suspect early month sellers may want to test some late quarter end window dressing, so will see how the QQQ reacts to the 535 support as well as watch and see if we can get a test of the 563 resistance area:

META put in a new all time high and we will continue to believe this area will be formidable and see sellers step in, we have $630 as our bull/bear pivot:

Nvidia almost put in a new high but missed it by a few cents:

We know that Apple has been supported by our longer term bull/bear pivot at $201 which does keep a bullish them there, but stops are right below, so a failure back below $201 would bring in systematic sellers:

The top tier banking giant JPM Chase did put in a new all time high hitting $292.65, this stock has seen a consistent bid off the lows, but is it worth a near 50% run off the lows??? We are going to watch any test of that $253 area for now and this number is rising, we also believe now that quarter end is done, this stock should see some profit taking, but would want to see a move below $280 first:

Finally one area of concern is Berkshire, we know its a more defensive safe haven and we would suspect it to underperform the Nasdaq and SP500 indexes, but a move back into the prior trend channel is a bit concerning overall:

It is interesting to note that both the equity, metals, FX and energy markets all took it on the chin the weeks after the last quarter end, not sure if we will see the same trade transpire but its something to keep in mind. A lot of times bids are used as window dressing into quarter end, using any and all available funding. Then as the quarter ends, the leverage is removed, so keep an eye on this as well.

We aren’t going to comment on the congressional charades over these pork filled spending bills. A country that has consistent $2.5Tn deficits obviously doesn’t care about fiscal responsibility, nor the real long term detrimental affects upon society. We have for many decades sacrificed long term stability for short term prosperity. We however believe that the United States and its fiscal irresponsibility is being met by a global force of investors that are discounting the countries bonds and exposing the fact that maybe now, U.S. Treasuries are not longer deemed a safe haven as once they were. This will have profound effects upon the future funding of our countries debt and given the sheer size of these numbers, even the smallest balk of buyers, will have significant impacts upon our interest rate markets.

Maybe the FOMC has lost the long end narrative for now, so it will be interesting to see when this bill passes, how the rates markets react. One thing is certain the can will be kicked down the hill, but this hill is becoming ever so steep and eventually a cliff looms at the end!

Alright that is it for the free look, (this week is free so read on and see what you are missing) we have all the MTR Subscriber data and trading trackers up next, we urge you to become a full subscriber and truly break through that barrier of understanding in regards to our global financial system and perhaps implement some of our trading trackers into your own investment profiles! If you are sick of stagnating, sick of losing then join the ranks of MTR Subscribers!

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